主题研究｜电力设备2026：迎接新瓦特时代

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about AI, industrialization, and electrification driving a new upward trend in global electricity demand, projecting a total demand of 30,929 TWh in 2024, representing a 4% year-on-year increase [2]. Group 1: Regional Electricity Demand Projections - United States: The electricity load growth rate is expected to reach 2.8% in 2024, with a forecasted increase of 3.7% from 2025 to 2030. The summer peak load demand is projected to increase by 166 GW, primarily driven by data centers, which will account for 90 GW (55%) of this increase [5]. - Europe: With the rise in electric vehicle penetration and continued growth in new energy installations, the electricity demand outlook is positive. From 2023 to 2030, the compound growth rate in electricity demand across several European countries is expected to return to growth, contributing an increase of 294-461 TWh, driven by sectors such as data centers (70-91 TWh), green hydrogen (79-101 TWh), and transportation (70-128 TWh) [5]. - Middle East: The region is expected to maintain resilient growth in electricity demand, with a compound growth rate of 5% from 2000 to 2024. The electricity demand increase is projected to reach 184 GW from 2016 to 2035, primarily from natural gas (100 GW) and photovoltaics (62 GW) [5]. - China: Driven by economic growth, increased penetration of new energy vehicles, and the development of high-energy-consuming AI industries, China's electricity demand is projected to grow robustly, with a compound growth rate of 9% from 2000 to 2024 [5]. Group 2: Electricity Equipment Industry Demand Drivers - The demand for the electricity equipment industry is primarily driven by three factors: 1. The need for regional grid upgrades, with capital expenditures expected to continue steady growth through 2026 to meet the requirements of China's new electricity system and aging infrastructure abroad [6]. 2. The expansion of grid capacity due to increased penetration of new energy sources, with a differentiated growth outlook expected in 2026, particularly in China and emerging markets, while Europe may face challenges from negative pricing and temporary outages [6]. 3. The demand from AI data centers, which is anticipated to face bottlenecks in electricity access points in the U.S. by 2026, creating opportunities for companies that can provide power solutions [6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The electricity equipment industry is expected to see significant investment opportunities in 2026, particularly in sectors such as gas turbines, solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), small modular reactors (SMR), photovoltaics, wind power, and transformers, as the market transitions into a new wattage era [6].