吕冰洋等：“十五五”时期我国税制改革

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of tax system reform in enhancing national governance capabilities and fiscal sustainability, particularly in the context of China's modernization strategy during the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026-2030) [2][3]. Tax System Structure and Challenges - The tax system is crucial for improving the country's governance and fiscal capacity, directly impacting macroeconomic management and social governance [2]. - Recent years have seen a significant slowdown in tax revenue growth, with nominal annual growth rates for national tax revenue at 2.27% and general public budget revenue at 3.03% from 2020 to 2024, compared to much higher rates of 10.46% and 10.95% from 2010 to 2019 [4]. - The proportion of tax revenue to GDP has been declining, dropping from 16.71% in 2018 to an estimated 12.97% in 2024, which is below the average of approximately 16% for emerging markets and 25% for advanced economies [4][5]. Fiscal Pressure and Structural Issues - The fiscal expenditure is increasing rigidly, with a growth rate of 3.64% in 2024, while tax revenue is projected to decline, leading to an expanding fiscal gap [5][6]. - The fiscal pressure is exacerbated by demographic changes, the rapid development of the digital economy, and the inadequacy of the local tax system [6][7][8]. Tax Reform Recommendations - The article suggests that tax reforms should focus on enhancing the ability to raise fiscal revenue, improving the local tax system, and increasing local fiscal autonomy [9]. - Key relationships to balance in tax reform include economic efficiency versus equity, the unification of economic and social governance functions, and the coordination between local autonomy and national oversight [9][10]. Specific Tax Recommendations - For corporate income tax, the focus should be on cleaning up fragmented policies rather than raising nominal rates, as the current rate of 25% is already competitive internationally [13][14]. - Personal income tax should primarily aim to raise fiscal revenue while also providing targeted adjustments, with a need to broaden the tax base and address the imbalance between labor and capital income taxation [17][18][19]. - Value-added tax (VAT) reforms should aim to maintain its role as a fiscal revenue pillar while addressing the shrinking tax base due to economic structural changes [22][23][24]. - Consumption tax reforms should consider establishing a dual-track system to enhance local fiscal autonomy while ensuring that the tax system aligns with public health and regulatory goals [25][26][27][28]. Conclusion - The article concludes that tax reforms must be systematically advanced under a unified strategy, focusing on specific areas such as corporate income tax, personal income tax, VAT, and consumption tax to support sustainable fiscal practices and equitable distribution [33].