滕泰：决定股市上涨的不是GDP，而是增长模式

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in China's fixed asset investment growth, which is projected to experience negative growth for the second time since the reform and opening up, highlighting the urgent need to shift the economic growth driver from investment to consumption [3][14]. Investment Trends - As of November 2025, China's fixed asset investment growth rate is -2.6%, with private investment declining by 5.3% [2]. - The highest investment growth rate in 2025 was 4.2% during the first quarter, indicating a downward trend since March [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) identifies insufficient domestic demand as a major challenge, particularly due to low consumer spending rates compared to developed countries [4][5]. Consumer Spending - In the first three quarters of 2025, per capita consumer spending in China grew by 4.6% year-on-year, which is lower than the previous year's growth [3]. - The consumer spending rate in China was 39.9% in 2024, significantly below the global average of 55% for middle-income countries and 50-70% for developed nations [3]. Economic Policy Shifts - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes increasing the consumer spending rate as a key goal for the next five years, advocating for a shift from "investment in goods" to a combination of "investment in goods and investment in people" [3]. - The article argues for a transformation in fiscal spending priorities, suggesting that government funds should focus more on income subsidies and improving living standards to stimulate consumption [7][22]. Investment Efficiency - The article highlights the negative consequences of excessive and inefficient investments, which have led to overcapacity and a decline in market investment willingness [3][5]. - It is noted that past high investment rates (40-45% of GDP) have not translated into proportional consumer spending, which remains low [12][17]. Future Outlook - The article posits that the stock market could become a significant alternative for increasing residents' property income, especially as the real estate market stabilizes [7][26]. - It suggests that a new economic growth model driven by capital and innovation, rather than traditional investment methods, is necessary for sustainable growth [27][28].