招商银行研究·2025-12-26 09:17Core Viewpoint - The coexistence of a weak dollar and strong US stocks this year is attributed to the resonance of macro cycles and industrial transformation, with the AI wave providing substantial support and outlook for the industry [2][11]. Group 1: Macro Drivers - The depreciation of the dollar has a mid-term positive impact on US stocks, as they are negatively correlated; a 10% decline in the dollar index can lead to a 2-3% increase in S&P 500 revenues [24][29]. - The international revenue exposure of S&P 500 companies is rising, with approximately 41% of revenues expected to come from outside the US by 2024, indicating a high degree of internationalization among larger firms [13][19]. - The technology sector has the highest international revenue exposure at 59%, benefiting significantly from a weaker dollar, while other sectors like utilities and finance remain more domestically focused [16][22]. Group 2: AI as a Driving Force - The AI sector has not yet reached a bubble, but concerns are emerging; the current high valuations are supported by strong fundamentals, with significant demand for computing power [39][44]. - The financing model for tech giants is shifting from cash flow-driven to debt-driven, with capital expenditures expected to rise significantly, raising concerns about sustainability and return on investment [57][59]. - The demand for AI capabilities is projected to grow, with McKinsey estimating a need for $6.7 trillion in capital expenditures for global data centers by 2030, indicating a robust growth trajectory for AI-related investments [50]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The US stock market is expected to transition from a dual driver of earnings and valuation to a single driver focused on earnings, with a predicted earnings growth of 11.8% in 2025 and 14.2% in 2026 [67][75]. - Despite high valuations, the market is not in a bubble; the focus should be on earning growth rather than betting on further valuation expansion [79]. - The technology and materials sectors are recommended for investment, as they offer a favorable balance of growth and valuation, with technology being the primary beneficiary of the AI wave [82].