高盛2026大宗商品展望：黄金为王，看好铜胜过铝和锂，AI竞赛与能源浪潮主宰商品市场

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market in 2025 will experience a tug-of-war between the strong performance of precious metals and the lackluster performance of the energy market, creating significant structural opportunities for investors. This divergence will become more pronounced in 2026, driven by two major global structural changes: the US-China power competition over technological dominance and geopolitical influence, and contrasting supply waves in the energy market, particularly the short-lived oil supply surge and the long-lasting liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansion [1][2]. Group 1: Macro and Micro Trends - The overall commodity market performed strongly in 2025, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) returning 15%, largely due to the excellent performance of industrial metals, especially precious metals, which benefited from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][3]. - The macro analysis framework identifies US-China geopolitical competition and AI rivalry as core pillars influencing the commodity market, while the micro analysis highlights two energy supply waves starting in 2025, with oil supply peaking in 2026 and LNG supply expanding significantly [3][4]. Group 2: Gold Demand and Price Projections - Central bank gold purchasing demand is expected to remain strong in 2026, averaging around 70 tons per month, which is over four times the long-term average of 17 tons before 2022. This demand is projected to support gold prices, potentially increasing them by approximately 14% by December 2026 [8][9]. - The model for "sticky belief buyers" (central banks and ETFs) indicates that their demand for gold is less volatile compared to opportunistic buyers, which could further stabilize gold prices [7][8]. Group 3: Copper and Industrial Metals Outlook - Despite recent price increases, copper is still viewed as a favored industrial metal due to its critical role in electrification, which drives nearly half of its demand. The forecast for copper prices in 2026 is an average of $11,400 per ton, with expectations of price stabilization and potential declines in the latter half of the year [27][29]. - The supply of copper is expected to face unique constraints, while strong demand from strategic sectors like AI and defense will provide a bottom support for prices [27][29]. Group 4: Energy Market Dynamics - The oil market is anticipated to experience a supply surplus in 2026, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices projected to average $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively. This surplus is attributed to a significant supply wave leading to an excess of 2 million barrels per day [40][43]. - In contrast, the LNG market is expected to see a rapid increase in supply, with global LNG exports projected to grow by over 50% from 2024 to 2030, driven by investments made during the previous energy crisis [49][50]. Group 5: Long-term Price Predictions - The forecast for gold prices suggests an increase to $4,900 by December 2026, while oil prices are expected to recover gradually by 2028, reaching around $80 per barrel as the market adjusts to long-term demand and supply dynamics [57][47]. - The divergence in performance among different commodities is expected to create significant relative value opportunities, with precious metals likely outperforming other sectors [56].