今天的中国，正在复刻美国“咆哮20年代”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential technological breakthroughs expected in 2026, highlighting a range of innovations that could signify a new era of technological advancement in China, akin to the "Roaring Twenties" in the United States during the 1920s [5][6]. Group 1: Technological Innovations - The anticipated technological milestones for 2026 include autonomous driving, liquid cooling, domestic HBM, edge AI, solid-state batteries, AI applications, quantum computing, integrated storage and computing chips, brain-like computing, low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, humanoid robots, silicon photonics, and controlled nuclear fusion [6]. - The article suggests that the current atmosphere of skepticism towards technology reflects a broader economic transformation, with significant innovations emerging as a hallmark of this period [6]. Group 2: Historical Parallels - The economic conditions in the United States at the beginning of the 1920s bear similarities to those in contemporary China, particularly in terms of rapid government spending and military expansion during World War I, which led to a subsequent economic downturn post-war [8]. - The article draws parallels between the supply-demand dynamics of the post-war U.S. economy and the current economic landscape in China, emphasizing that the real threat comes not from recession but from the unsustainable costs established during periods of prosperity [11][12]. Group 3: Technological Adoption and Economic Impact - The rapid adoption of electricity in the 1920s significantly transformed American manufacturing, leading to increased productivity and wage growth, which in turn fueled consumer demand and the rise of a middle class [15]. - The introduction of radio as a revolutionary media technology during the same period created a national advertising platform, which helped establish consumer brands and contributed to the rise of a consumer economy in the U.S. [16][18]. Group 4: Lessons for Today - The article posits that the technological advancements of the 1920s, while initially underestimated, ultimately led to significant economic changes, suggesting that similar patterns may emerge in China today with AI and other technologies [27][28]. - It warns that while the current technological landscape may appear inflated, the underlying productivity gains could have lasting impacts, much like the radio technology did despite the stock market crash of 1929 [28].