楼市明年到底会不会回暖

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in Shanghai's real estate market, highlighting that the transaction volume has exceeded 20,000 units for two consecutive months, which is a significant achievement given the current market conditions [5][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - Shanghai's second-hand housing market has shown strong performance, with an average monthly transaction volume of 20,000 units throughout the year, which is remarkable during a perceived downturn [5]. - The current main buyers in the market are not the typical demographics, but rather long-term workers in Shanghai who are now considering purchasing homes due to favorable pricing [9][10]. Group 2: Buyer Demographics - The purchasing power of buyers has shifted significantly, with 50% of current demand now coming from properties priced below 2 million, compared to 3 million three years ago, indicating a substantial change in buyer profiles [7][8]. - Over 70% of buyers are now looking for properties priced below 3 million, reflecting a dramatic increase in the low-price segment of the market [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The increase in transactions is attributed to the affordability of older, smaller properties in central areas, which are appealing to new buyers who are sensitive to price [10][11]. - The current market activity is driven by a new class of buyers who are entering the market, which could potentially lead to a broader recovery in the real estate sector [12][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article expresses optimism for the upcoming year, suggesting that if the market maintains a transaction volume of 20,000 units in January, a positive trend is expected to continue into the spring [15].