Micron Technology(US:MU) 格隆汇APP·2025-12-27 06:10Core Viewpoint - Micron's FY26 Q1 financial report shows impressive results, with revenue of $13.64 billion, significantly exceeding the guidance range of $12.2-12.8 billion and market expectations by nearly $700 million. Adjusted EPS reached $4.78, far surpassing the market expectation of $3.95 [5][8][11] Group 1: Revenue and Profitability - Micron's revenue for the quarter increased by 57% year-over-year and 21% quarter-over-quarter, marking the highest growth rate in nearly five years [8] - The revenue growth was primarily driven by price increases rather than volume, with bit shipments showing only slight growth. The adjusted EPS of $4.78 represents a significant jump from the previous quarter [11] - Non-GAAP gross margin surged to 56.8%, a year-over-year increase of 17.3 percentage points, and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11.1 percentage points, far exceeding the guidance of 50.5%-52.5% [11] - Operating cash flow reached $8.41 billion, well above the expected $5.94 billion, while adjusted free cash flow hit a record $3.91 billion, with a free cash flow margin close to 30% [11] Group 2: Product Structure - DRAM remains the dominant segment, generating $10.8 billion in revenue, accounting for 79% of total revenue, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 20% [12] - The average selling price (ASP) for DRAM increased by approximately 20% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting the scarcity of supply [12] - NAND revenue reached $2.7 billion, representing 20% of total revenue, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 22% [12] - HBM is highlighted as a key growth driver, with all of Micron's HBM capacity for 2026 already sold out, and HBM4 expected to enter mass production in Q2 2026 [12] Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for storage is being driven by AI, with a "voracious" appetite for storage across all categories, leading to widespread price increases [15][16] - HBM prices have surged by 500% this year, while DDR4 prices have increased by over 50% [15] - The supply of DRAM and NAND is expected to grow by only about 20% year-over-year, significantly lagging behind demand growth, leading to a persistent supply-demand imbalance [19] - Micron's strategy involves balancing production between HBM and traditional DRAM while prioritizing strategic customers in data centers [20] Group 4: Future Outlook - The global storage market is projected to reach $193.2 billion by 2025, setting a historical record [22] - Key signals to watch for the sustainability of this recovery include whether Micron can maintain its strong performance in FY26 Q2, with guidance suggesting revenue of $18.3-19.1 billion and adjusted EPS of $8.42 [24] - The release of new production capacity and advancements in technology will be critical for growth, particularly in HBM [25][26] - The balance of supply and demand, along with price trends, will be crucial in determining the industry's profitability in the long term [27]