白银还能更疯狂？资深分析师喊出300美元天价

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant surge in silver prices, which have increased approximately 10.3% recently, reaching around $79.30 per ounce, and have risen over 170% this year, outpacing gold's increase of over 70% [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current price surge is primarily driven by a supply-demand imbalance, with all factors supporting this trend expected to persist for a considerable time [6]. - A structural deficit of approximately 800 million ounces over the past five years, equivalent to nearly a full year of mining supply, is a key reason for the price explosion [7]. - The Silver Institute predicts that this deficit will continue for the next five years [7]. - Industrial demand, particularly from solar panel manufacturers, is a major driver, with investment demand for silver ETFs expected to reach nearly 200 million ounces this year, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 70 million ounces [9]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Peter Krauth, a notable silver analyst, anticipates that silver prices could reach $300 per ounce during an upcoming "frenzy phase," driven by a significant adjustment in the gold-silver ratio [5][10]. - The gold-silver ratio peaked at 104 in April but has since fallen to around 68, with predictions that it could drop to 15 in the future [10]. - Using a current gold price of approximately $4,500, a ratio of 15 would imply a silver target price of $300 [11]. - Krauth acknowledges more aggressive predictions of $800 to $1,000 but considers them unrealistic compared to his more measured forecast [12]. Additional Influencing Factors - Other factors contributing to the surge in precious metals include a weakening dollar, high government deficits, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks [13]. - Krauth maintains a cautious outlook for the short term, suggesting that while silver is in a strong market position, minor corrections may occur [14].