【广发宏观王丹】前11个月工业企业利润结构分析：领跑和拖累行业

Core Viewpoint - In November, the revenue and profit of national industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 0.3% and 13.1% year-on-year, respectively, marking two consecutive months of negative growth. This has led to a slowdown in cumulative revenue growth to 1.6% and profit growth to 0.1% for 2025. Although the overall profit growth for this year is expected to improve compared to 2022-2024, the pace remains insufficient, and marginal pressures are increasing in the fourth quarter [1][7]. Revenue and Profit Breakdown - The "volume" aspect shows that the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.8% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to October's 4.9% [2][13] - The "price" aspect indicates that the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month at 0.1% and decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than October [2][14] - The revenue profit margin for January to November was 5.29%, down by 0.08 percentage points year-on-year, significantly impacting the profit decline compared to revenue [2][13] - Costs remained relatively stable, but expenses increased, with expenses per 100 yuan of revenue decreasing by 0.06 yuan year-on-year, indicating higher expenses in November compared to previous months [2][13] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased to 70.4 days by the end of November, up by 3.7 days year-on-year, prompting the central economic work conference to emphasize the need to expedite the clearance of overdue accounts [2][13] Industry Performance - Manufacturing and public utility profits have slowed for two consecutive months, with significant declines in consumer goods manufacturing profits, aligning with the record low in retail sales in November [3][17] - The cumulative growth rate of public utility profits fell from 9.5% to 8.4%, with November profits for electricity and water supply dropping by 1.3 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively, likely due to rising coal prices [3][17] - In the first eleven months, the mining, manufacturing, and public utility sectors saw year-on-year growth rates of -27.2%, 5%, and 8.4%, respectively, with manufacturing profits declining for two consecutive months [3][17] Structural Highlights in Profits - Structural highlights in November's industry profits were mainly concentrated in emerging industries, with high-tech manufacturing profits accelerating by 2.0 percentage points to 10% year-on-year [4][19] - Significant profit growth was observed in sectors related to "Artificial Intelligence +", aerospace, and smart consumer devices, with semiconductor equipment profits soaring by 97.2% and aerospace-related equipment profits increasing by 192.9% [4][19][20] - The overall midstream equipment manufacturing profits remained robust, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 7.7% [4][19] Inventory and Financial Health - As of the end of November, the nominal and actual inventories of industrial products continued to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6% in nominal inventory and 6.8% in actual inventory [5][22] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for November was estimated at 0.54, indicating a passive inventory accumulation due to demand slowing faster than supply [5][22] - The asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points, reaching 58.1% by the end of November, with liabilities growing by 5% year-on-year [5][27][28]