每周推荐 | 人民币破7的持续性？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent appreciation of the RMB, its potential sustainability, and the medium-term outlook for the currency amidst changing economic conditions and external factors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Recent RMB Appreciation - The rapid appreciation of the RMB is attributed to the decline in the US dollar index from 99.4 to below 98, influenced by lower interest rate differentials and expectations of intervention by the Bank of Japan [2]. - A surge in currency settlement activity is anticipated to begin this week, with the actual swap points rising significantly, indicating increased trading volume [2]. Group 2: Short-term Sustainability of RMB Appreciation - The ongoing currency settlement wave is expected to support the RMB, with historical data suggesting that after two consecutive quarters of appreciation, the settlement rate typically improves [3]. - The delayed impact of the February Spring Festival may also contribute to the continued improvement in settlement rates over the next month [3]. Group 3: Medium-term Outlook for RMB - With nominal GDP recovery, the RMB and USD may enter a phase of mutual strength, supported by reduced debt pressure and improved investment and profitability by 2026 [4]. - Enhanced external demand and increased export share are expected to bolster the resilience of exports, transitioning the economy from a confidence-building phase to a "non-typical" recovery, which may sustain the RMB's strength [4].