热点思考 | 美联储扩表与QE时代的终结——“流动性笔记”系列之七（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's initiation of the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) after the December 2025 FOMC meeting signals the end of the QE era rather than a restart, despite both leading to an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet. RMP and QE have fundamental differences in policy and market implications [2][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Expansion - The Federal Reserve announced a restart of balance sheet expansion at the December FOMC meeting, with the pace slightly exceeding expectations, aligning with liquidity management needs. By the end of 2025, reserves may have fallen to ample levels, necessitating early expansion to accommodate economic growth and seasonal demand fluctuations [3][8][14]. - The RMP, starting on December 12, 2025, has an initial scale of $40 billion, expected to remain high until April 2026, after which it may slow to an average of $20-25 billion per month [3][18][69]. Group 2: Nature of RMP - RMP is a technical operation aimed at assisting the effective implementation of monetary policy without altering the Fed's policy stance. It primarily refers to interest rate policy, allowing market rates to fluctuate narrowly around the policy rate without frequent open market operations [4][41][69]. - RMP and QE both lead to balance sheet expansion but differ fundamentally in quality. RMP is a conventional liquidity management operation, while QE is a broad "yield curve management" tool. RMP is market-neutral, whereas QE is market-non-neutral [4][65][69]. Group 3: Conclusion on QE - QE is only likely to be considered after interest rates are lowered to near zero, as this is the inherent order of monetary easing. Not all balance sheet expansions are classified as QE, which requires a zero lower bound constraint on monetary policy. Prior to reaching this limit, rate cuts are a more effective means of stimulating aggregate demand [5][71][60]. - Historical instances of QE-style expansions by the Fed occurred only after interest rates were lowered to zero or near-zero levels, indicating that a return to QE may require a future crisis [5][47][71].