【宏观】特朗普如何激活美国地产：现实与挑战——解构美国系列第十六篇（赵格格/周欣平）

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Trump's housing reform is unlikely to boost the U.S. real estate market, which remains in a "weak supply and demand" state despite significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024-2025 [4][5]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The U.S. real estate market has not entered a recovery cycle due to limited reductions in mortgage rates, which remain above 6%, significantly higher than the average of 4.3% for existing mortgages [5]. - Demand is declining due to high home prices, elevated mortgage rates, and an affordability crisis, with new and existing home sales expected to be lower in 2025 compared to 2024 [4]. - Supply is constrained by a "lock-in effect" in the existing home market and a decrease in new home supply due to rising material tariffs and interest rate fluctuations, leading to sustained high home prices [4][5]. Group 2: Future Outlook - As the 2026 midterm elections approach, Trump's housing reform is anticipated to focus on lowering mortgage costs, activating the supply market, and further interest rate cuts [6][7]. - However, significant interest rate cuts may not effectively translate to lower mortgage rates due to legislative and judicial constraints, as well as tariff risks and construction cycle delays, suggesting a baseline expectation of a weak recovery in the U.S. real estate market by 2026 [7]. Group 3: Forward-Looking Indicators - To observe the U.S. real estate cycle, it is important to construct forward-looking variables, particularly the spread between current mortgage rates and existing mortgage rates [8]. - Historical data indicates that a spread of 90-100 basis points, corresponding to around 5% mortgage rates, could signal the start of a new real estate cycle, with a corresponding 10-year U.S. Treasury yield expected to be around 3.2%-3.3% [8].