Tesla(US:TSLA) 格隆汇APP·2025-12-28 07:26Core Viewpoint - The humanoid robot sector in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced significant volatility in 2025, reflecting the market's transition from initial excitement over Tesla's Optimus production expectations to panic selling due to technical challenges, and finally to a reassessment of value driven by industry mergers and order fulfillment [4][5]. Financing and Investment Trends - The field of embodied intelligence saw unprecedented financing activity in 2025, with 610 new financing events in China's robot industry in the first three quarters, doubling from 294 in the same period last year, marking a three-year high [6]. - The total financing for domestic robot startups reached approximately 500 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, 2.5 times that of the same period last year, with Q3 alone accounting for 198.13 billion yuan, a 172% year-on-year increase [9]. - A concentration of funding is evident, with the top 10 companies capturing about 40% of the total financing amount for the year [10]. IPO and Market Entry - 2025 is referred to as the "securitization year" for humanoid robots, with over ten companies submitting IPO applications, including successful listings of companies like Geek+ and Cloudwalk Technology on the Hong Kong stock exchange [12]. - Companies such as Yushun Technology are expected to become the first humanoid robot stock in A-shares, while ZhiYuan Robotics has completed a management overhaul to secure a listing platform [12][15]. Order Growth and Market Demand - 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for the commercialization of China's robot industry, with significant breakthroughs in orders. Several companies reported annual orders exceeding 1 billion yuan, with UBTECH leading at nearly 14 billion yuan [19]. - The top ten companies in the robot industry by order volume include UBTECH, Yushun Technology, and Yuejiang Robotics, with UBTECH's Walker series humanoid robot being a standout product [20]. Production and Cost Dynamics - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from "technical competition" to "manufacturing competition" and "commercial competition," with a focus on scaling production and reducing costs [22]. - The cost of manufacturing a humanoid robot using the Chinese supply chain is projected to be approximately $46,000 in 2025, significantly lower than the $131,000 cost using non-Chinese supply chains [32][34]. Technological Advancements - The development of dexterous hands remains a critical challenge for the industry, with current solutions lacking in performance and cost-effectiveness. However, domestic advancements have reduced the cost of dexterous hands significantly, paving the way for mass commercialization [24][25]. - The integration of large models, particularly visual-language-action (VLA) models, is transforming how robots understand and execute tasks, moving away from traditional programming methods [27][30]. Supply Chain and Localization - The localization of the supply chain is driving down costs and enhancing the competitiveness of domestic humanoid robots, with key components achieving over 90% localization rates [36]. - Companies like Yushun Technology have introduced affordable humanoid robots, such as the Unitree R1AIR priced at 29,900 yuan, showcasing the impact of localized production on consumer pricing [35].