白银狂飙，马斯克直言：这不好！

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver is approaching $80 per ounce, driven by a structural deficit in the global market, plummeting inventories, and a disconnection between paper trading and physical supply, which poses significant challenges to modern industrial chains [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver has seen a rapid price increase, surpassing gold, with concerns raised by Elon Musk regarding its implications for industrial development [3][4]. - The global silver market has been in a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with physical inventories depleting rapidly and major exchange stock levels significantly declining [6][9]. - The supply-demand gap is widening, with projected silver demand reaching 1.24 billion ounces by 2025, while supply is only expected to be 1.01 billion ounces, resulting in a shortfall of 100 to 250 million ounces [9]. Group 2: Industrial Importance - Silver is not only a precious metal for investment but also a critical raw material for solar panels, electric vehicles, electronic products, and medical devices, with industrial demand accounting for 50% to 60% of total demand [8][10]. - The rigid nature of silver mining supply, primarily as a byproduct of copper and zinc mining, along with the long lead time for new mines, exacerbates the supply constraints [9]. - The significant drop in inventory levels, with COMEX silver stocks down 70% and London vault stocks down 40% since 2020, indicates a precarious supply situation, with some regions having only 30 to 45 days of available silver inventory [9]. Group 3: Paper vs. Physical Silver - There is a severe imbalance between "paper silver" and physical silver, with an estimated ratio of 356:1, meaning each ounce of physical silver corresponds to hundreds of claims in paper trading [10]. - This disconnection heightens market vulnerability, as even a small number of buyers requesting physical delivery could risk system collapse, contributing to the recent price surge [10]. - Industrial buyers, who are less sensitive to price fluctuations due to the lack of effective substitutes, face significant challenges amid supply shortages, as highlighted by Musk's concerns about the volatility impacting critical industries [10].