唐劲草：我们正站在从艰难转型向信心回归的关键节点

Core Viewpoint - The current primary market in China is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "mechanism restructuring," emphasizing the need for institutional innovation to facilitate capital flow towards new productive forces [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2025, the Chinese primary market shows a divergence between "statistical data recovery" and "micro individual coldness," with over 30% year-on-year growth in newly registered funds in Q2 and Q3, yet over 80% of new registrations are concentrated in leading institutions and large state-owned platforms [2][3] - The industry is undergoing a paradigm shift affecting the entire fundraising, investment, management, and exit chain, with 1,118 private fund managers either voluntarily or involuntarily deregistering from January to November 2025, indicating accelerated clearance of "zombie institutions" [2][3] - The funding landscape is characterized by a "structural siege," where state-owned general partners (GPs) dominate fundraising, leading to increased competition for private fund managers and a trend where limited partners (LPs) prefer to invest only in state-owned GPs [3] Group 2: Capital Patience and Confidence - The solution to the industry's challenges lies in systematic, top-level design for "mechanism restructuring," focusing on addressing the issues of capital "patience" and "confidence" [4] - The year 2025 marks the beginning of "super long duration" funds, with 53% of newly established guiding funds allowing sub-funds to have a duration of over 10 years, reflecting a shift from "quick returns" to respecting industrial laws [5] - A "high tolerance for loss" policy is being explored, allowing up to 80% investment loss tolerance for seed or future industry projects, marking a significant shift in assessment criteria from "single project evaluation" to "lifecycle evaluation" [6] Group 3: Exit Strategies and Liquidity - The traditional reliance on IPOs for exits is shifting, with over 90% of Chinese venture capital funds previously depending on IPOs, while in 2025, secondary transactions and mergers and acquisitions are becoming primary exit strategies [11] - The total transaction volume of domestic secondary funds reached 1,078 billion yuan in 2024, with a 46% year-on-year increase, and the first half of 2025 has already surpassed the total number of transactions in 2024 [11] - Flexible exit strategies, such as installment buybacks and debt restructuring, are being adopted to mitigate cash flow risks for startups, reflecting a deeper understanding of the high-risk, long-cycle nature of new productive forces [12] Group 4: Future Investment Landscape - In 2026, the investment focus is expected to shift towards "new productive forces," with low-altitude economy, embodied intelligence, and AI+ industries becoming core asset allocations [15] - The unique value of private GPs needs to be re-evaluated, as they possess advantages in early project discovery and flexible investment strategies, which are crucial for amplifying the effectiveness of state-owned guiding funds [16] - The current period is a critical juncture for China's equity investment mechanism, transitioning from difficult transformation to confidence restoration, with a consensus on long-duration funds, tolerance for failure, and flexible exits [17]