【广发宏观团队】贵金属和有色金属继续上行背后

Group 1 - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals continue to rise, with COMEX silver and copper increasing by 18.0% and 6.2% respectively from December 19 to December 26, and annual increases of approximately 172% and 45% [1] - The rise in precious metals and non-ferrous metals is supported by a declining dollar cycle, geopolitical changes, and increased demand from new industries such as renewable energy and electric vehicles [2][3] - Supply growth is constrained due to geopolitical risks, shrinking mine output, and rising ESG costs [3] Group 2 - The acceleration in silver and copper prices in December is attributed to the U.S. releasing a new critical minerals list, which includes these metals, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [4] - Concerns regarding tariffs under the Trump administration have also influenced copper prices, while limited supply of silver for delivery has added upward pressure on prices [4] - The narrative surrounding precious and non-ferrous metals is expected to continue, with potential risks of asset pricing becoming one-sided [5] Group 3 - Global stock markets have shown a strong performance, with technology and non-ferrous sectors leading the way, while the bond market remains stable [6] - The MSCI developed and emerging markets recorded gains of 1.12% and 1.71% respectively, indicating a recovery in emerging markets [6] - The performance of commodities is influenced by low inventory and tight supply, with silver and copper prices breaking previous highs [8] Group 4 - The U.S. GDP data for Q3 indicates a soft landing under the interest rate cut cycle, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, surpassing market expectations [13][14] - Consumer spending and net exports were significant contributors to GDP growth, while residential and construction investments were a drag [14] - The Federal Reserve officials are signaling further rate cuts, although there is a divergence in opinions regarding the timing and extent of these cuts [15][16] Group 5 - The Chinese economy is showing signs of stabilization, with infrastructure projects and traditional industries expected to see a market space increase of 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [25][26] - The focus on optimizing traditional industries includes supply-side structural reforms and enhancing product quality [26][27] - New industries such as electric vehicles and lithium batteries are being prioritized for innovation and market regulation [27][28]