投资前瞻（12.29—1.4）｜明年将扩大财政支出盘子、促进居民就业增收；华尔街预计2026年美股潜在涨幅

Macro and Finance - Offshore RMB broke the 7.00 mark for the first time since September 2024, indicating a strong appreciation momentum and increased market confidence in the currency [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation is guiding compliance in the photovoltaic industry to address issues of low-quality competition and market distortion, which are affecting profitability and innovation [3][4] - The risk reserve ratio for personal public funds may be lowered, as regulatory focus shifts to breaking the current disparity in reserve requirements between personal and non-personal public funds [5] - The Ministry of Finance and other departments issued the "Corporate Sustainable Disclosure Standards No. 1 - Climate (Trial)" to encourage companies to voluntarily disclose climate-related risks and opportunities [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released opinions to promote the large-scale development of solar thermal power, aiming for a total installed capacity of 15 million kilowatts by 2030 [7] - The Ministry of Finance plans to expand fiscal spending and enhance employment support in 2026, indicating a proactive fiscal policy approach [8][9] - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the December PMI data, with November's manufacturing PMI at 49.2%, showing slight improvement [10] - The central bank will have 622.7 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing in the coming week, indicating liquidity management in the market [11] - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its December meeting, with expectations of ongoing discussions about interest rate adjustments [12] Capital Market - China's ETF market is approaching 6 trillion yuan, with stock ETFs accounting for over 63% of the total market value [13] - CITIC Securities highlights the performance of ETFs, noting that 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with a focus on sectors like telecommunications and aerospace [14][15] - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has been launched with a government investment of 100 billion yuan, aiming to attract over a trillion yuan in social capital for strategic emerging industries [16] - The A-share market saw an 8-day rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.88% to 3963.68 points, driven by strong performance in metals and defense sectors [17] - The National Investment Silver LOF has adjusted its investment limits due to market volatility, indicating a response to price fluctuations [18] - Over 580 billion yuan in locked shares will be released next week, with significant amounts from companies like Baiwei Storage and Yingxi Network [19] - Wall Street predicts a potential 9% increase in the S&P 500 index for 2026, driven by corporate earnings growth and interest rate cuts [20] Business Industry - The National Internet Information Office has drafted a regulation for the management of AI humanoid interactive services, seeking to promote healthy development in this sector [21] - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the U.S. decision to impose additional tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products, emphasizing China's opposition to such measures [22] - China successfully conducted the first flight of the world's first 6-ton tilt-rotor aircraft, marking a significant technological breakthrough [23] - Wall Street's GPU leader, Birun Technology, is set to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with an IPO price range of 17.00 to 19.60 HKD [24] - The 2025 China Green Hydrogen Industry Conference will be held, focusing on policies and technological advancements in the green hydrogen sector [25] - The 2025 Shenzhen Brain Conference will take place, aiming to foster innovation and collaboration in brain science and technology [26]