白银直逼80，马斯克直言：这不好！

Core Viewpoint - The global silver market is experiencing a structural deficit, with supply shortages leading to significant price increases, driven by industrial demand rather than just safe-haven investment sentiment [3][6]. Supply Gap and Capacity Constraints - In 2025, global silver demand is projected to reach 1.24 billion ounces, while supply is only expected to be 1.01 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 100 to 250 million ounces [5]. - This situation is characterized as a "structural deficit" with no quick fixes in sight [6]. - The rigidity of supply from mining is a core issue, as silver is primarily a byproduct of copper and zinc mining, and new mines typically take over 10 years to develop [7]. - Recycling efforts are insufficient to bridge the supply gap, leaving the supply side weak against rising demand [8]. Inventory Data and Market Dynamics - COMEX silver inventories have plummeted by 70% since 2020, while London vaults have seen a 40% decline [9]. - Current demand rates suggest that available silver inventories in some regions can only sustain 30 to 45 days of supply [10]. Discrepancy Between Paper and Physical Silver - There is a significant imbalance between "paper silver" and physical silver, with an estimated ratio of 356:1, meaning each ounce of physical silver corresponds to hundreds of paper claims [12]. - This disconnection increases market vulnerability, as even a small number of buyers requesting physical delivery could risk system collapse [12]. - Market participants are increasingly aware of this risk, contributing to the recent sharp price increases as banks and institutions react to supply constraints and physical shortages [12]. Industrial Demand and Sensitivity - Industrial applications now account for 50% to 60% of total silver demand [3][13]. - Industrial buyers are less sensitive to price fluctuations due to a lack of effective substitutes, but they are extremely vulnerable in the face of supply shortages [14]. - The volatility in silver prices poses a significant challenge for industries reliant on this critical raw material, as highlighted by concerns from industry leaders like Elon Musk [15].