字节国产算力Capex超预期？关于昇腾的100+400亿订单产业机会梳理

Core Viewpoint - ByteDance is set to procure a total of 500 billion yuan worth of Ascend chips, with an initial order of 100 billion yuan and a future order of 400 billion yuan by 2026, aligning with previous reports [1][2]. Group 1: Procurement Details - The current procurement includes a confirmed order of 100 billion yuan, while the future order amount remains uncertain [2]. - The 400 billion yuan order is likely to be a framework agreement rather than a direct order, contingent on the performance of the Ascend 950 chip, which has not yet been mass-produced [3]. Group 2: Ascend Chip Product Roadmap - Huawei's Ascend will launch the 950PR in Q1 2026, focusing on upgrading interconnect bandwidth and enhancing cluster and training capabilities [5]. - The product roadmap includes the release of several series from 2026 to 2028, such as the 950PR, 950DT, 960, and 970 [5]. Group 3: Industry Chain Insights - Key suppliers for the Ascend chip's interconnect include Huafeng Technology, Yihua Co., and others for connectors, switches, PCBs, and CCLs [5][6]. - The interconnect technology used in the Ascend chips is Huawei's self-developed HCCS, designed for low-latency and high-bandwidth communication between NPUs [6]. Group 4: Financial Projections - HFKJ's 2026 performance estimates suggest that the company will exceed 10 billion yuan in net profit, driven by significant growth in its communication business and partnerships with major tech firms [8]. - The overall gross margin is projected to be around 30.7%, with a net margin of 13.06%, expected to improve as the communication business grows [8]. Group 5: AI Capital Expenditure - Major domestic companies, including ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent, are projected to have aggressive AI capital expenditures in 2024, totaling approximately 777 billion yuan [10].