【有色】国家发改委强调对铜冶炼强化管理和优化布局——铜行业周报（20251222-20251226）（王招华/方驭涛）

Core Viewpoint - The article maintains a positive outlook on copper prices, expecting them to rise due to tight supply and demand dynamics despite short-term pressures from increased inventory and reduced demand in certain sectors [4][5]. Supply and Demand - As of December 26, 2025, the SHFE copper closing price was 98,720 RMB/ton, up 5.95% from December 19, 2025, while the LME copper closing price was 12,133 USD/ton, up 3.37% [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for enhanced management and optimization in industries such as copper smelting, indicating a focus on supply-side reforms [4]. - Despite a decrease in cable enterprise operating rates, which may suppress demand, the overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight into 2026, supporting a bullish outlook on copper prices [4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 16.8% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 4.3% [5]. - As of December 26, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 775,000 tons, up 5.9% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across major exchanges totaled 716,000 tons, up 1.4% week-on-week as of December 19, 2025 [5]. Supply Metrics - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and down 12.1% year-on-year [6]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper (精废价差) was 4,218 RMB/ton as of December 26, 2025, down 464 RMB/ton from December 19, 2025 [6]. Smelting and Production - China's electrolytic copper production in November 2025 was 1.1031 million tons, up 1.1% month-on-month and up 9.8% year-on-year [7]. - The TC spot price was -44.90 USD/ton as of December 26, 2025, down 0.9 USD/ton from December 19, 2025, marking a low not seen since September 2007 [7]. - In November, copper imports were 271,000 tons, down 3.9% month-on-month and down 24.7% year-on-year, while exports were 143,000 tons, up 116.8% month-on-month and up 1,128.1% year-on-year [7]. Demand Insights - Cable manufacturing accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with operating rates at 60.75% as of December 25, 2025, down 5.96 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to increase by 11% year-on-year for January 2026 [8]. - The operating rate for brass rods, which account for about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, was 50.2% in November, up 6.7 percentage points month-on-month but down 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Futures Market - The SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 2% week-on-week, with a total of 252,000 contracts as of December 26, 2025, placing the position at the 80th percentile since 1995 [8]. - As of December 16, 2025, the non-commercial net long position on COMEX was 65,000 contracts, up 3.8% week-on-week, also at the 89th percentile since 1990 [8].