张瑜：美联储降息≠人民币升值≠出口承压——汇率升值叙事的三重纠偏

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the narrative that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts lead to the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB), which may harm export competitiveness. However, this narrative is questioned for its logical consistency [2][5]. Group 1: Popular Narrative and Core Logic - The core narrative is that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts lead to a weaker dollar, resulting in RMB appreciation, which could negatively impact China's export competitiveness [5]. - The narrative's logical inconsistencies include: 1) The relationship between Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weaker dollar is not guaranteed; 2) RMB appreciation does not necessarily equate to a loss of export competitiveness [2][3]. Group 2: Assessment of RMB Exchange Rate Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is currently considered fairly valued, with no significant overvaluation or undervaluation issues. The deviation from the "value center" is around 0% to 2% [10][61]. - Internally, the RMB's stability is supported by export resilience and policy support, but significant upward momentum for appreciation may require further accumulation of fundamental support [10][89]. - Externally, the Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts may help sustain economic growth and relative asset price advantages, limiting the pressure for a continuous decline of the dollar [10][79]. Group 3: Analysis of RMB Appreciation in 2023 - The RMB's appreciation in 2023 can be divided into two phases: 1) From mid-April to November, where policy support was the main driver, with the RMB middle price rising from approximately 7.21 to around 7.08 [38][44]. 2) From late November to the present, where market supply and demand became the primary driver, with the RMB middle price further appreciating to just above 7.04 [39][47]. Group 4: Factors Influencing Future RMB Exchange Rate - Four key factors to consider for future RMB exchange rate trends include: 1) Valuation factors indicate that the RMB is not significantly overvalued or undervalued [10][61]. 2) Policy orientation has shifted from guiding stable appreciation to preventing excessive appreciation volatility [64][67]. 3) Internal supply and demand dynamics, particularly the flow logic of trade surplus and net settlement rates, are crucial for understanding RMB trends [72][73]. 4) External responses, particularly the behavior of the dollar index, suggest limited potential for sustained dollar weakness due to the current economic context [79][80].