国泰海通|非银:资负共振下保险估值修复,居民重配资产亦利好券商
国泰海通证券研究·2025-12-28 14:49

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in residents' asset allocation towards savings-type insurance, particularly dividend insurance, in the context of a large amount of bank deposits maturing in 2026. Insurance companies are increasingly focusing on the bancassurance channel and enhancing cooperation with state-owned banks, indicating a broad expansion potential for their networks. It is expected that bancassurance will become a notable growth driver in 2026 [1] - The insurance sector has been systematically undervalued due to market concerns over long-term interest rate declines and rising liability costs, which create profit uncertainties. However, with interest rates stabilizing and the positive impact of increased equity allocations on investment returns, along with adjustments in liability rates and the transformation of dividend insurance, the industry is expected to see a reduction in liability costs. This resonance between assets and liabilities is anticipated to gradually expand the interest margin, leading to a recovery in insurance stock valuations [1] - Additionally, in the context of deposit migration, there is optimism regarding the opportunities for brokerage firms as residents' funds are expected to enter the capital markets directly or indirectly [2]