国泰海通证券研究·2025-12-28 14:49Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to enter a new upward trend based on technical signals from sentiment models indicating a bullish signal [1][2]. Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to return to an upward trend, with liquidity shock indicators for the CSI 300 index at 0.34, lower than the previous week (0.41), indicating current market liquidity is 0.34 standard deviations above the average level over the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options increased to 0.88 from 0.83, reflecting a rise in investor caution regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A Index are 1.06% and 1.66%, respectively, indicating increased trading activity, positioned at the 69.45% and 75.13% percentiles since 2005 [2]. - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated last week, with onshore and offshore rates increasing by 0.46% and 0.42%, respectively [2]. - Historical data shows that the SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index have respective probabilities of rising in the second half of December at 50%, 55%, 45%, and 40%, with average gains of 1.2%, 1.08%, -0.11%, and -0.84% [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A Index broke above the reversal indicator on December 1 according to the SAR indicator [2]. - The market score based on moving average strength is 212, placing it at the 77.2% percentile for 2023 [2]. - A sentiment model score of 3 out of 5 indicates a positive trend signal and a positive weighted model signal [2]. - The A-share market experienced a rebound last week, influenced by U.S. President Trump's strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and the rapid growth of new momentum industries such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing in China [2]. Market Review - Last week, the SSE 50 Index rose by 1.37%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.95%, the CSI 500 Index grew by 4.03%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 3.9% [3]. - The current overall market PE (TTM) stands at 22.3 times, which is at the 76.6% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Crowding Observation - The crowding degree for small-cap factors has decreased to 0.15, while the crowding degree for low valuation factors is at -0.61 [4]. - The crowding degree for high profitability factors is 0.14, and for high profitability growth factors, it is 0.46 [4]. - Industry crowding degrees are relatively high in telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, comprehensive, power equipment, and electronics, with defense and military industry and commercial retail showing significant increases [4].