国泰海通｜策略：跨越，远望又新峰

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese stock market is expected to break through and stabilize at important levels, with a "transformation bull market" anticipated to reach new heights by 2026, driven by emerging technologies and cyclical finance [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4000 points on October 28, marking a 10-year high, confirming the strategic judgment made by Guotai Junan for 2025 [2] - The article emphasizes that after a prolonged period of volatility, the Chinese stock market is poised for a significant upward movement, with emerging technologies as the main focus and cyclical finance as a potential dark horse [2][3] Group 2 - Since September 2024, macroeconomic policy shifts have alleviated internal concerns, while since April 2025, China has managed trade frictions more effectively, reflecting an increase in national strength and governance capabilities [3] - The article notes that the traditional investment model is shifting, with a focus on knowledge, technology, and capital-intensive industries driving new growth, as opposed to the previous reliance on traditional, extensive investments [3][4] - The breaking of the "guaranteed return" phenomenon in China has led to a systemic decline in risk-free returns, with long-term interest rates expected to fall below 2% in the second half of 2024, indicating a significant change in the investment landscape [4] Group 3 - The transformation of China's industrial structure is crucial, as it reduces uncertainty in economic and social development, providing clear investment signals [5] - The article highlights that the characteristics of the "transformation bull market" are intertwined with economic structural transformation and capital market reforms, encouraging confidence and patience in the stock market [5]