国泰海通 · 晨报1229｜宏观、策略、金属新材料、航天

Macro Overview - Precious metals such as gold and silver continue to reach new highs, while the RMB exchange rate has broken the 7 mark [2] - Major global stock markets saw increases, with the Nikkei 225 up 2.5% and the S&P 500 up 1.4% [3] - Commodity prices generally rose, with COMEX copper increasing by 6.7% and London gold rising by 4.4% [3] Economic Indicators - The US economy showed strong growth in Q3, with GDP increasing by 2.33% year-on-year and 4.30% quarter-on-quarter [4] - Industrial output in the US exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.29% in November [4] - In Europe, crude steel production fell to 102 million tons in November, a decrease of 4.67% year-on-year [4] Policy Developments - The US has postponed additional tariffs on Chinese semiconductors to stabilize trade relations [5] - Japan plans to introduce a record initial budget of 122.3 trillion yen [5] - The French National Assembly passed a temporary budget to ensure government operations [5] Market Strategy - The Chinese stock market is expected to stabilize and reach new heights, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points [7] - Emerging technologies are anticipated to be the main investment focus, while cyclical finance may emerge as a dark horse [7] - The capital market in China is seen as a crucial element in gathering social capital and confidence, marking a significant shift from previous years [8] Investment Trends - The breaking of the "guaranteed return" system in China is leading to a decline in risk-free asset yields, with long-term rates expected to drop below 2% [9] - The demand for asset management is projected to surge as the market adapts to new conditions [9] - Structural transformation in industries is reducing uncertainty in economic development, providing clearer investment signals [10] Industrial Metals Insights - Industrial metals are experiencing price increases, with silver prices rising due to ongoing inventory disruptions [13] - Copper supply remains fragile, with long-term processing fees set at $0 per ton, indicating a potential for strong copper prices [14] - The lithium market is facing demand weakness, but prices are expected to remain strong due to supply disruptions [15] Aerospace and Defense Sector - The release of listing standards for commercial rocket companies is expected to accelerate capital operations in the aerospace sector [18] - The Chinese government emphasizes the development of commercial aerospace as a key component of national strategy [19] - New listing criteria focus on technological advantages and market potential, which may enhance the growth of commercial rocket enterprises [20]