深度长文，盘点2025年的十大展望

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is a retrospective analysis of predictions made for 2025, focusing on the accuracy of these forecasts and the lessons learned for future market predictions [4][7][12] Group 2 - The low interest rate environment continued to dominate in 2025, with the OMO rate expected to be reduced by 30-40 basis points, and bank deposit rates also seeing declines [7][8] - The actual market reflected a stable short-end interest rate while the long-end rates experienced some upward movement, indicating a successful policy goal of stabilizing short-term rates [8][9] - The trend of credit bonds saw a narrowing of credit spreads, driven by strong demand for credit bond allocations [8] Group 3 - Regulatory policies focused on enhancing marketization and customer-centric approaches, with significant developments in A-shares and public funds [12][13] - The public fund industry experienced a wave of fee reductions, leading to a shift in business models and a focus on high-quality development [13] Group 4 - The "fixed income plus" strategy gained significant traction, with public bond funds and mixed-asset products seeing substantial growth [14][16] - The importance of "fixed income plus" is expected to increase further in 2026 as long-term, high-yield deposits mature [17] Group 5 - The era of dividend investing continued, with a focus on companies with healthy cash flows, and the emergence of self-owned cash flow strategies [19][21] - The trend of insurance capital investing in high-dividend stocks in Hong Kong remained strong, with net inflows expected to continue [20][23] Group 6 - The diversification of index business became a key focus, with significant growth in ETF sizes and a shift towards brand and ecosystem development [28][30] - The rapid growth of ETFs was evidenced by the domestic ETF scale surpassing 60 trillion, indicating a strong market presence [30][32] Group 7 - The consolidation trend among financial institutions accelerated, with significant capital injections into major banks and challenges faced by smaller banks [39][40] - The public fund industry began to see mergers, reflecting the increasing pressure on smaller firms [42] Group 8 - The trend of overseas investment deepened, with QDII quotas becoming tighter and mutual recognition funds gaining traction as effective overseas investment tools [51][52] - The demand for overseas investment advisory services increased, highlighting a shift towards diversified asset allocation [53] Group 9 - Third-party platforms faced revenue declines from traditional products, prompting a shift towards promoting fixed income plus and index products [55][56] - The rise of fund advisory services created a positive investor experience, indicating a potential growth area for third-party platforms [56][57] Group 10 - A-shares remained influenced by regulatory policies, with expectations for further optimization and enhancement of existing frameworks [59][60] - The public fund sector saw a significant increase in passive index investments, while active equity funds faced challenges [62][63]