招商电子·2025-12-29 00:02Core Viewpoint - The growth in AI demand is driving global storage and advanced process capacity expansion, with expectations for accelerated domestic storage and advanced process expansion in 2026-2027. Domestic equipment manufacturers are seeing a positive order trend, and companies with strong positioning and market share in storage equipment are likely to benefit. The outlook for domestic computing power demand is also positive, with companies like Moer and Muxi expected to achieve high revenue growth in 2025. The storage sector is experiencing continuous price increases, and major companies anticipate a favorable performance trend in Q4. Structural opportunities still exist despite limited bit output next year [3][4][5]. Industry Prosperity Tracking 1. Demand Side: In 2026, storage price increases may constrain demand, but AI terminal innovation and computing power construction are expected to be highlights. Global smartphone sales are projected to decline by 0.9% year-on-year in 2026, with significant pressure on mid-range Android phones. The PC market saw a 9.4% year-on-year increase in global shipments in Q3 2025, but storage pressures are anticipated in 2026. The AI PC upgrade cycle is expected to start in 2026-2027. Wearable devices, particularly AI glasses, are expected to see high growth, with global sales projected to reach 7 million units in 2025 [4][5]. 2. Inventory Side: The inventory adjustment for power MCUs and analog DOIs is nearly complete. In Q3 2025, the average inventory of major mobile chain chip manufacturers increased, while the DOI for overseas manufacturers decreased. PC chain chip manufacturers saw an increase in inventory and DOI [5]. 3. Supply Side: Global wafer fab capital expenditures are expected to continue growing in 2026, with both advanced and mature process expansions anticipated in China. DRAM capital expenditures are projected to grow by 14% in 2026, while NAND capital expenditures are expected to increase by 5%. Domestic storage manufacturers are expected to continue expanding production, with market share likely to increase [5][6]. 4. Price Side: In Q4 2025, DRAM and NAND spot prices are expected to continue rising, with the DXI index reaching a historical high of over 380,000. The supply-demand gap for DDR4 products remains, leading to accelerated price increases for 8G and 16G products. NAND Flash products are benefiting from increased storage capacity demand from AI servers [6]. 5. Sales Side: Semiconductor sales are expected to continue growing, driven by AI demand. WSTS has revised the global semiconductor sales forecast for 2026 to $975.4 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 26.3%. The current semiconductor cycle has been recovering since February 2023, with global semiconductor sales in October 2025 reaching $72.7 billion, a 27% year-on-year increase [6][7]. Industry Chain Tracking 1. Design/IDM: AI is driving demand for related chips, with a focus on computing power chips and the recovery of the sector. Nvidia's H200 sales in China have been released, and companies like Moer and Muxi are expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2025 [7][8]. 2. SoC and MCU: In H2 2025, demand from domestic downstream customers is expected to slow down, with a focus on future AI applications. The MCU market is experiencing a mild recovery, while SoC companies are facing growth slowdowns due to rising storage chip prices [8]. 3. Storage: Major companies expect a favorable performance trend in Q4, with Taiwanese module and niche manufacturers seeing high revenue growth in November. However, the price increases in storage may pose challenges for global terminal products [8]. 4. Analog: AI demand is becoming a growth engine for major manufacturers, with domestic companies increasing their focus on growth areas such as servers and robotics [9]. 5. Power Semiconductors: AI power demand is leading the market, with domestic power companies optimistic about a positive trend in Q4. Infineon has raised its revenue guidance for AI data center business to €1.5 billion for FY26 [11]. 6. Foundry: Demand for advanced processes remains strong, while mature processes are experiencing a mild recovery. Domestic companies like SMIC and Huahong are currently facing supply shortages [12]. 7. Packaging and Testing: The demand for advanced packaging is expected to remain optimistic in 2026, with a focus on domestic computing power and storage demand [12]. 8. Equipment, Materials, and Components: The domestic storage manufacturers are expected to continue expanding production, benefiting equipment companies with strong market positions. The domestic semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow, with a focus on reducing reliance on foreign components [13].