机构研究周报：人民币升值利于风险偏好提升，白银波动风险加大

Key Insights - The current appreciation of the RMB is expected to enhance foreign investment interest in RMB assets and improve risk appetite, creating a positive cycle that boosts asset valuations and interbank liquidity [5] - Silver prices have surged over 170% this year, with increased volatility risks due to geopolitical tensions and strong industrial demand, leading to potential significant corrections [3] - The A-share market is projected to see a 5-10% increase in the Wande All A index in 2026, with a favorable environment for commodities over stocks and bonds [6] - The commercial aerospace sector in China is experiencing rapid growth, supported by policy, technology, and capital, forming a trillion-dollar industry chain [13] - The humanoid robot market is expected to reach $5 trillion by 2050, with a deployment of 1 billion units, indicating significant future growth potential [12] Equity Market - The RMB's appreciation is likely to enhance foreign capital inflows, positively impacting asset valuations and financial conditions [5] - The Wande All A index has shown a year-to-date increase of 28.07%, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 18.26% [9] - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 28.71% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has risen by 17.82% [9] Industry Research - The technology investment landscape in 2026 is expected to be more challenging than in 2025, with increased market volatility and the need for precise industry timing and stock selection [12] - The commercial aerospace sector is positioned to support China's strategic goals, with significant growth potential in various application scenarios [13] - The humanoid robot market is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by advancements in technology and industry ecosystems [12] Macro and Fixed Income - The bond market is facing challenges, but potential opportunities may arise from oversold adjustments [18] - Demand for bonds is showing signs of marginal recovery, supported by increased corporate foreign exchange settlement needs [19] - The yield curve is expected to maintain a steep shape, with strategies focusing on capital gains and coupon income [20] Asset Allocation - The trend of "deposit migration" is reshaping asset allocation, with an increasing share of equity assets expected [22] - Investors are encouraged to diversify their portfolios to mitigate volatility and gradually increase equity asset proportions [22]