提前18个月精准预警展期风险

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of a major enterprise's bond extension on the bond market, highlighting the importance of early risk warnings to mitigate potential losses for investors [1]. Group 1: Risk Warning and Analysis - Wind AI's machine learning model provided a risk warning 18 months prior to the bond extension, adjusting the risk rating from "medium risk" to "high risk" and then to "very high risk" [1]. - The risk ratings were updated multiple times, with the most recent rating on April 19, 2025, showing a score of 2.67, categorized as "very high risk" [2]. - The article emphasizes the need for timely risk assessments to allow investors to take necessary actions before crises occur [1]. Group 2: AliceRisk Tool - AliceRisk is introduced as a specialized tool for diagnosing default risks in credit bonds, designed to address pain points in credit bond investment research [3]. - The tool allows users to obtain risk assessments in three simple steps, making it accessible for investors [3]. - The scoring system ranges from 0 to 100, providing a clear and straightforward understanding of risk levels associated with credit bonds [10]. Group 3: Comprehensive Risk Assessment - The AliceRisk model incorporates various risk factors, including credit, market, liquidity, financial, and operational risks, along with macroeconomic and industry-specific external factors [12]. - The tool offers full coverage of industrial bonds, ensuring comprehensive risk assessments for credit investment research [13]. - Users can access a dedicated section for industrial bond default risk assessments through the Wind financial terminal, which includes both current and historical risk evaluation data [14].