中金：如何看待2026年红利行情？

Core Viewpoint - The performance of dividend style in 2025 is expected to be relatively flat, presenting phase-specific and structural opportunities. The growth style has led the market, with the ChiNext Index and Sci-Tech Innovation 50 rising by 51.5% and 36.1% respectively since the beginning of the year, while the dividend style has seen a slight decline of 1.2% [2] Group 1: Market Conditions and Trends - The A-share market is expected to trend towards a more balanced style in 2026, with a higher certainty for dividend style but still leaning towards structural and phase-specific opportunities. The demand for fund allocation supports the performance of dividend sectors [3] - The current low interest rate environment in China continues, with a slowdown in the decline of the ten-year government bond yield since July, leading to a stable bond market outlook. This backdrop is expected to increase the motivation for long-term funds, such as insurance and bank wealth management, to allocate to equities, highlighting the appeal of dividend assets [3] - The policy environment has been increasingly supportive of dividend distribution, with the new "National Nine Articles" reinforcing dividend regulations and encouraging companies to enhance their dividend capabilities. By 2024, the overall dividend payout ratio in A-shares is expected to rise to 45% [4] Group 2: Dividend Style Investment Strategy - The support factors for the dividend style have been largely reflected, while the stability of the underlying companies will be the key focus for future stock selection. Companies are encouraged to enhance their dividend capabilities to attract investors [6] - An optimized high-dividend stock selection strategy has been constructed, focusing on quality free cash flow, stable high dividends, and moderate dividend yields. This strategy aims to outperform traditional high-dividend indices [6] - Specific stock selection criteria include: market capitalization over 20 billion, P/E ratio under 25, dividend payout ratios above 45% for non-financial companies, and a free cash flow to equity ratio above 8% [7]