对比互联网泡沫，AI现在走到“1998年”？

Core Viewpoint - The current AI wave is compared to the late stage of the 1998 internet bubble, indicating that it is at the tail end of the "1→N" phase, characterized by high revenue growth but slowing marginal growth, with valuation premiums only one-third of the extreme levels seen in 1998 [1][5][14] Summary by Sections AI Wave and Market Comparison - The current AI wave has only reached about one-third of the extreme levels seen during the internet bubble. Since October 2022, the S&P 500 index has outperformed its fundamentals by approximately 27 percentage points, significantly lower than the 85 percentage points during the peak of the internet bubble [2][14] - The report predicts that the "1→N" phase will end around mid-2026, leading to a mild market correction, with the S&P 500 potentially retreating to around 6700 points. However, this is not the end of the market rally, but rather a prelude to the "N→N+" phase [2][16] Revenue Growth and Market Dynamics - The AI wave is currently in the application expansion phase, similar to the late 1990s, with revenue growth showing signs of marginal decline while still remaining high. This phase is expected to last until mid-2026 [10][12] - The Nasdaq has demonstrated stronger earnings support compared to the S&P 500, indicating a more robust fundamental backing for the current AI wave [4][14] Valuation Metrics and Future Projections - The report utilizes a "fundamental earnings model" to show that the current S&P 500 index's price has outperformed its fundamentals by about 27%, compared to 69% during the late "1→N" phase of the internet bubble. This indicates that the current valuation pressure is only about one-third of the extreme levels seen during the internet bubble [14][16] - Looking ahead to 2026, the S&P 500 is expected to face a correction, but post-correction, it may enter an accelerated growth phase, potentially reaching 7500 points by the end of 2026 and even 9600 points by the end of 2027 [16]