百年沉浮，两家独角兽，一场关于预测未来的新冒险

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of prediction markets, particularly Kalshi and Polymarket, as they gain mainstream attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, highlighting their potential as tools for forecasting events and the associated risks of being perceived as gambling platforms [4][6][20]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Prediction markets have seen significant engagement, with over $3 billion wagered on election outcomes, proving to be more accurate than traditional polls [4][5]. - Kalshi and Polymarket have both surpassed $1 billion valuations, attracting substantial investments from venture capitalists [5][17]. - The platforms allow users to bet on a variety of events, from geopolitical issues to pop culture, indicating a broadening of market interests [4][5]. Group 2: Operational Mechanisms - Unlike traditional gambling, prediction markets operate on a peer-to-peer betting model, where participants bet against each other rather than against a house [8][9]. - The value of event contracts fluctuates based on public sentiment and market dynamics, providing real-time insights into the probability of various outcomes [9][10]. - Kalshi has established a more compliant operational framework compared to Polymarket, which has faced legal challenges [13][16]. Group 3: Challenges and Controversies - The industry faces scrutiny over its ethical implications, with concerns that it may be viewed as a form of gambling rather than a legitimate forecasting tool [6][20]. - Both platforms have encountered regulatory hurdles, with Polymarket previously banned from operating in the U.S. due to compliance issues [12][16]. - The perception of prediction markets as "casinos" could undermine their credibility and long-term viability [6][20]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The sustainability of interest in prediction markets beyond major events like presidential elections remains uncertain [7][18]. - New competitors are emerging in the prediction market space, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [19]. - The platforms are exploring various revenue models, including transaction fees and partnerships with media and AI companies, to enhance profitability [19][20].