贵金属延续强势：申万期货早间评论-20251229

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals continue to show strong performance, supported by favorable economic indicators and market conditions [2][18]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The 2026 National People's Congress and the Chinese financial work conference emphasized the continuation of a proactive fiscal policy, focusing on expanding fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools [1]. - In November, China's industrial profits fell by 13.1% year-on-year, while high-tech manufacturing profits accelerated [1]. - The U.S. November CPI was reported at 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%, indicating a downward trend that may provide room for interest rate cuts [2][18]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Spot silver prices surged, reaching new historical highs, driven by expectations of continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve [2][18]. - The weak employment data in the U.S. supports the Fed's potential for further rate cuts, which is expected to boost liquidity and positively impact precious metal prices [2][18]. - Long-term support for precious metals remains strong due to factors such as the weakening of the U.S. dollar's credibility and central bank gold purchases [2][18]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with significant fluctuations in the previous trading day, particularly in the metals sector [3][11]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend, supported by policy backing, capital protection, and industrial drivers [3][11]. - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the U.S. dollar, with expectations of further inflows of overseas capital, which may lead to a revaluation of Chinese assets [3][11]. Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices rose over 2%, reaching new historical highs, amid tight supply conditions and fluctuating smelting profits [4][19]. - The global copper supply-demand outlook is shifting towards a deficit due to supply disruptions [4][19]. - Key indicators such as electricity investment and automotive production are showing positive growth, while real estate remains weak [4][19]. Group 5: Other Commodities - The domestic coal-to-methanol production rate is at 85.66%, with a slight decrease in operational load due to reduced demand from MTO enterprises [14]. - The natural rubber market is experiencing price increases due to supply constraints from weather conditions in production areas [15]. - The lithium carbonate market continues to see strong demand, with production and inventory levels indicating a robust outlook despite potential supply increases in the future [22].