如何看待近期白银价格与波动的暴涨？

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the global precious metals market has shown strong performance, with significant price increases in gold, silver, and platinum due to expectations of falling real interest rates, recurring geopolitical risks, and rising demand for "non-credit assets" [2] Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals, particularly silver, have outperformed gold, with silver showing remarkable price elasticity in the current market [2] - The main silver futures in China have seen continuous price increases in Q4 2025, breaking through previous high points, accompanied by rising trading volume and open interest, indicating a surge in market sentiment [5][7] Group 2: Drivers of Silver Price Increase - The price performance of silver futures in Q4 2025 is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic conditions, industrial fundamentals, and funding behaviors [7] - International markets have re-evaluated silver's "financial attributes," placing it alongside gold as a hedge against monetary credit and policy uncertainties [8] - Industrial demand for silver is expected to remain robust, particularly from the photovoltaic, new energy, and electronics sectors, with tightening supply-demand dynamics further supporting price increases [9] - Silver has become a "sentiment amplifier" in the precious metals sector, attracting speculative and trend-following funds due to its higher elasticity and active trading compared to gold [10] Group 3: Volatility and Risk Management - The implied volatility of silver futures options has surged, indicating market expectations of significant future price fluctuations, which may lead to increased risk for investors [12] - In the current high-volatility environment, managing risk and position sizes is more critical than simply maintaining a bullish outlook on precious metals [14] - Fund managers holding gold futures or stocks are advised to consider the extreme levels of silver's implied volatility, which may indicate a shift to a sentiment-driven pricing phase for precious metals [14]