金属周报 | 挤仓风暴席卷,白银铜价共振冲高
对冲研投·2025-12-29 06:36

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in copper and precious metal prices, driven by market dynamics such as tariff expectations, supply chain issues, and speculative trading, while also indicating potential risks of demand weakness in the copper market [2][4][39]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Last week, COMEX gold rose by 4.42%, and silver surged by 18.22%, with SHFE gold and silver increasing by 3.71% and 19.14% respectively [4][26]. - The overall macroeconomic environment was stable, but the weakening dollar and expectations of liquidity easing contributed to the strong performance of precious metals [7][25]. - Silver's price volatility reached historical highs, driven by structural short squeezes in the market [7][25]. Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - COMEX copper prices continued to rise, with increases of 6.71% and 5.95% in respective markets, breaking the historical 100,000 yuan mark [4][8]. - Concerns over weak domestic demand are expected to resurface as copper prices rise, with November and December consumption already showing a decline [9][39]. - The COMEX copper inventory has increased significantly, surpassing 480,000 tons, indicating a potential supply-demand imbalance [9][10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategies - The market sentiment appears exuberant, with many short positions being forced to cover, contributing to the price increases in copper and silver [2][8]. - The current contango structure in copper pricing suggests potential strategies for market participants to consider, particularly in the longer-term contracts [9][10]. - The article notes that while the immediate outlook may be bullish, caution is advised regarding potential price corrections in the near term [39].