美联储的两大误判（国金宏观钟天）

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's two major misjudgments in 2025 were overestimating the weakening of labor supply and the inflation level transmitted by tariffs, reflecting a lack of clarity regarding the "K-shaped economy" in the U.S. and the impact of AI [4][8]. Group 1: Labor Supply Weakness - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) first addressed labor supply issues in June 2025, attributing the decline in labor supply to significantly lower immigration numbers [11]. - There is a widespread misconception that anti-immigration policies began with Trump's administration; in reality, the Biden administration had already tightened illegal immigration by mid-2024 [11]. - Despite expectations, the U.S. unemployment rate began to rise again in June 2025, even as labor supply did not show significant reduction compared to previous trends [12]. - The anticipated reduction in labor supply due to immigration policies was only partially realized in swing states, with actual labor supply contraction occurring much later [14]. - Current non-farm employment growth is below 50,000 per month, indicating a significant decline in the "equilibrium employment level" [16]. - The Fed's misjudgment regarding labor supply is influenced by three objective factors: cautious evaluation of anti-immigration policies, the limited impact of these policies on domestic labor supply, and a weakening of real demand [19][20]. Group 2: Tariff-Induced Inflation - The Fed's overestimation of tariff-induced inflation is linked to the further weakening of the U.S. real economy, with Powell indicating a shift in perspective to view tariff impacts as a "one-time shock" [23]. - As of November, the U.S. had collected $164 billion in tariffs compared to the previous year, but many exemptions and "import rushes" mean that not all tariffs are borne by U.S. importers [23]. - The U.S. hotel industry has seen occupancy rates below 2024 levels for nine consecutive months, indicating a broader trend of weak consumer spending [24]. - Tariff-sensitive sectors have absorbed some of the tariff increases, leading to a decline in pre-tax profits for non-financial companies in the first quarter [27]. - Many U.S. companies are now viewing layoffs as a cost-control measure to offset tariff pressures, which could exacerbate economic downturns if the economy weakens further [30]. - The burden of tariffs varies significantly across different product categories, and this could amplify economic fluctuations in 2026, depending on the economic recovery or further downturns [33][36].