国泰海通｜金属新材料：金属行业继续共舞

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, with COMEX gold surpassing $4500 per ounce, while silver prices surged due to supply shortage expectations, breaking through $79 per ounce [1] - Platinum prices are increasing due to persistent supply-demand gaps, while palladium prices are experiencing steady growth with significant fluctuations [1] - By 2026, factors such as central bank gold purchases, rising gold ETF holdings, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside a weakening dollar index, are expected to support gold prices [1] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices on the Shanghai exchange have surpassed 100,000 yuan, reaching a historical high due to supply disruptions and low inventory levels in non-US regions [2] - Labor negotiations at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile have raised concerns about copper supply for 2026, while the National Development and Reform Commission encourages mergers among major copper smelting enterprises [2] - Market sentiment and changes in futures microstructure will be crucial for future price movements [2] Group 3: Aluminum - Aluminum prices have reached new highs amid a favorable macroeconomic environment, although the short-term outlook shows weakening fundamentals [2] - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 60.8%, influenced by environmental production restrictions and high aluminum prices [2] - The market is expected to experience a tug-of-war between macroeconomic benefits and weak fundamentals, leading to high volatility in aluminum prices [2] Group 4: Energy Metals - Lithium demand is showing signs of weakening, while production is increasing, leading to a decrease in inventory levels [3] - There are uncertainties regarding the resumption of production at key mines in Jiangxi, which could impact market expectations for lithium supply [3] - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight raw material supply, while downstream demand is cautious, with companies extending their operations into integrated cost advantages [3] Group 5: Rare Earths - Light rare earth prices are recovering, while medium and heavy rare earth prices are maintaining a downward trend [4]