国泰海通｜固收：2026年债市展望

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive outlook on the fixed income investment landscape for 2026, highlighting key changes in interest rate expectations, monetary policy, and investment strategies across various debt instruments [2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The article discusses the shift in low interest rate expectations, indicating a transition phase for the fixed income market as it prepares for new dynamics in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - It outlines the reconstruction of monetary policy frameworks, focusing on the implications of the Japanese yield curve and easing models for future investments [2]. Group 3: Timeframe for Deposit Rates - The article elaborates on the timeline for deposit rates to decrease, analyzing four critical factors that will influence this trend [2]. Group 4: Credit Bond Investment Strategy - It emphasizes the importance of selecting specific credit bonds, focusing on interest rates and trading opportunities as part of the investment strategy for 2026 [2]. Group 5: Bank Debt Strategy - The strategy for bank perpetual bonds is highlighted, advocating for a focus on stability while balancing short-term and long-term investments [2]. Group 6: Government Bond Futures Strategy - The article provides insights into the strategy for government bond futures, indicating potential market movements and investment opportunities [2]. Group 7: Convertible Bond Strategy - It discusses the need for a proactive approach in selecting individual convertible bonds, emphasizing the importance of market conditions [2]. Group 8: REITs Strategy - The article concludes with a positive outlook for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in 2026, suggesting a renewed journey in this sector [2].