国泰海通｜固收：2026一季度，债市行情可能有什么不一样

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expected trends and characteristics of the bond market in the first quarter of 2026, highlighting the influence of policy expectations, government bond issuance, and market dynamics on interest rates and investment strategies [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - The bond market in recent years has experienced varying trends driven by different factors: - 2020 saw rapid interest rate declines due to the pandemic and aggressive central bank easing - 2021 experienced a rise in rates due to a pre-Spring Festival liquidity crunch, followed by a decline as monetary policy remained stable - 2022 had initial rate cuts and a surge in credit, leading to fluctuating rates - 2023's strong recovery expectations were temporarily undermined, resulting in a similar pattern of rising and then falling rates - 2024 is expected to see a significant decline in rates due to an asset shortage, while 2025 may witness rising rates as the central bank tightens funding [1]. Expectations for Q1 2026 - The bond market in Q1 2026 is anticipated to share several characteristics with previous years: - There is unlikely to be a "black swan" event affecting the fundamentals, with a focus on policy expectations and bond issuance rhythm - Government bond issuance may slow compared to the accelerated pace of 2025, with net financing expected to account for about 25% of the annual total - The net financing scale for government bonds is projected to slightly increase from 14.4 trillion to 14.8 trillion, a 2% rise - The stock market may continue to exhibit a "spring rally," putting pressure on the bond market - The probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut is higher than that of an interest rate cut, with historical trends indicating that cuts in reserve requirements typically precede interest rate reductions [2][3]. New Features for 2026 - The bond market is expected to exhibit new features in 2026: - Monetary policy iterations may provide timely support through MLF, buyout methods, and government bond transactions, with low funding volatility anticipated - The demand for long-term bonds may weaken towards the end of 2025, but could rebound around the Spring Festival as new capital enters the market - There will be a continued divergence in growth efficiency between emerging and traditional economies, with new productivity sectors outpacing traditional sectors, potentially leading to a "dual bull" market in stocks and bonds in the short term - Overall, the bond market pressure is expected to be limited, with a "weak first, strong later" rhythm anticipated, and the 10-year government bond yield may face pressure before the Spring Festival, with an upper limit of 1.90-1.95% [3].