【公用事业】广东26年长协竞价结果符合预期，动力煤价格持续下行——公用事业行业周报（20251228）（殷中枢/宋黎超）

Market Overview - The SW public utility sector increased by 0.83% this week, ranking 20th among 31 SW primary sectors, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.88% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.53% [4] - The top five performing stocks in the public utility sector were Jingneng Power (+15.95%), Delong Huineng (+12.85%), Shanghai Electric (+11.47%), Dalian Thermal Power (+7.61%), and Anhui Energy (+7.43%) [4] - The worst-performing stocks included Hengsheng Energy (-21.47%), Xin'ao Co. (-5.47%), Mindong Electric (-2.17%), Huatong Thermal (-2%), and Huaneng Hydropower (-1.92%) [4] Coal Price Trends - Domestic and imported thermal coal prices continued to decline this week, with Qinhuangdao Port's 5500 kcal thermal coal price dropping by 33 CNY/ton [5] - Imported thermal coal prices also fell, with the price at Fangchenggang Port decreasing by 20 CNY/ton and at Guangzhou Port by 15 CNY/ton [5] Key Events - Guangdong's total transaction volume for 2026 is projected at 359.437 billion kWh, with an average transaction price of 37.214 CNY/kWh, down 5.03% year-on-year [6] - The electricity price for bilateral negotiations in 2026 is set at 37.221 CNY/kWh, with a total transaction volume of 4.779 billion kWh, reflecting a 17.74% increase from 2025 [6] - Nationwide electricity consumption reached 835.6 billion kWh in November, a 6.2% year-on-year increase, with cumulative consumption from January to November at 9,460.2 billion kWh, up 5.2% [6] - As of the end of November, the total installed power generation capacity reached 3.79 billion kW, a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [7] Industry Outlook - The results of the Guangdong electricity price negotiations are in line with expectations, with potential pressure on the profitability of thermal power units, although the spot market may provide performance growth [8] - The outlook for other provinces suggests that the annual long-term contract prices in regions with stable monthly contracts, such as Beijing and Shanghai, are expected to remain stable [8] - The green electricity sector is anticipated to experience valuation recovery due to policy support and accelerated subsidies, despite a downward trend in electricity prices [8] - The investment returns for thermal and green electricity should align with the overall investment return levels to ensure financing viability [8]