【钢铁】热卷库存处于5年同期最高水平——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.12.22-12.28）（王招华/戴默）

Group 1: Liquidity and Market Conditions - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index is at 47.15 for December 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 10.19% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.1 percentage points in November 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 1.10 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is $4,533 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Weekly price changes include rebar at -1.20%, cement price index at -0.49%, rubber at +1.00%, coke at -3.40%, coking coal at -0.14%, and iron ore at -0.63% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates changed by +0.01 percentage points, -0.90 percentage points, and -2.3 percentage points respectively [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The price of titanium dioxide increased by 0.77% week-on-week, while flat glass prices remained unchanged; the gross profit for titanium dioxide is -1,744 yuan per ton, and the operating rate for flat glass is 73.89% [6] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel at -0.51%, copper at +5.84%, and aluminum at +1.01%, with corresponding gross profit changes showing a turnaround to profit for some [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 72.05%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points [7] Group 5: Subcategory Prices - The price of tungsten concentrate reached a new high since 2012 at 460,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 6.35% week-on-week [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 19,000 yuan per ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 2,060.56 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.98% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22,060 yuan per ton, with a calculated profit of 4,918 yuan per ton (excluding tax), an increase of 6.72% [8] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.02 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 10 yuan per ton [10] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 430 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton [10] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November is 47.60%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [11] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,146.67 points this week, an increase of 1.95% [11] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 75.30%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points [11] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.95%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being chemicals at +4.23% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 is 28.64% and 95.13% respectively [12] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector is 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [12]