中金 | 破局存量竞争：中国食饮出海掘金指南

Core Viewpoint - The domestic food and beverage industry in China has entered a mature phase with slowing growth, but recent policy benefits, supply chain advantages, and product enhancements have laid the groundwork for domestic companies to expand overseas [2][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The overall growth rate of the domestic food and beverage industry is projected to be only 2.0% from 2020 to 2024, with traditional categories like mid-range beer and basic condiments entering a phase of stock competition [3]. - Some niche segments, such as energy drinks and compound seasonings, continue to show high growth, but the industry as a whole faces a ceiling [3]. - The RCEP agreement and cross-border trade facilitation actions have reduced tariffs and logistics costs, enhancing the conditions for Chinese companies to go global [3]. Group 2: Global Market Opportunities - The CAGR for the food and beverage industry in Southeast Asia, the U.S., and Western Europe from 2020 to 2024 is projected to be 4.6%, 5.9%, and 4.7% respectively, significantly higher than China's 2.0% [3][5]. - Southeast Asia has a population of approximately 600 million, with a young demographic and dietary habits similar to China, making it an attractive market for entry [3][7]. - The U.S. market, with a size of $919.8 billion, offers substantial opportunities due to its large scale and high consumer purchasing power, particularly among the growing Asian population [3][5]. - The EU has a high per capita GDP of $41,423, indicating strong consumer purchasing power and a clear trend towards premium products, providing space for differentiated offerings [3][5]. Group 3: Successful Case Studies - Kikkoman successfully entered the U.S. market in the 1960s by focusing on brand cultivation and local production, demonstrating the importance of understanding market inflection points and building a global distribution system [4]. - Domestic company Mixue has rapidly expanded overseas by leveraging cost-effectiveness, intellectual property, and franchising [4]. - Aisle has successfully penetrated the Indonesian market by enhancing brand recognition through localized innovation, achieving a market share among the top three [4]. Group 4: Regional Market Characteristics - Southeast Asia's food and beverage market is characterized by a young population and rapid GDP growth, making it a prime location for localized and scalable market entry [11]. - The U.S. market is marked by a growing Asian demographic with high income levels, creating a core consumer group for Asian food and beverages [12]. - The European market emphasizes high per capita income and a strong demand for health-oriented products, aligning well with Chinese offerings in tea, functional drinks, and plant-based products [12]. Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - The seasoning market in Southeast Asia is growing steadily, with sauces and seasonings accounting for the highest market share [15]. - The U.S. seasoning market is projected to reach $37.28 billion in retail sales by 2024, with a CAGR of 6.8% from 2019 to 2024, indicating a diverse consumer preference [20][22]. - The snack market in Southeast Asia is experiencing rapid growth, with the region's snack market retail sales projected to reach $19.15 billion by 2024 [23][25]. Group 6: Challenges and Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in Southeast Asia is fragmented, with both local leaders and international giants present, necessitating a focus on differentiated product offerings [28]. - In the U.S. and Western Europe, the snack market is dominated by major international players, making it essential for Chinese companies to leverage unique flavors and innovative products to gain market entry [34].