2025年科尔尼行业系列回顾｜经济与政策

Group 1 - The global economic uncertainty is significantly increasing due to the interplay of geopolitical factors, tariff adjustments, and technological changes, which are reshaping growth and capital flows for the next five years [1][2]. - Companies and cities must enhance their competitiveness by gaining insights into structural trends and maintaining resilience and decisive decision-making in a volatile environment [1][2]. Group 2 - The next five years will see five major variables, including geopolitical dynamics, technological breakthroughs, and institutional evolution, profoundly reshaping the global operational logic, necessitating companies to identify long-term trends rather than being swayed by short-term fluctuations [2][3]. - Commodity prices are expected to be highly differentiated and volatile, requiring companies to adopt data-driven procurement and pricing systems to improve their ability to respond to cyclical and structural changes [4]. Group 3 - Adjustments in tariff policies are altering foreign direct investment expectations, presenting Asian economies with critical challenges in capital reallocation and industrial layout decisions [7]. - In the context of increasing global uncertainty, urban competitiveness is shifting from historical advantages to innovation capabilities, digital infrastructure, and talent aggregation effects [10]. Group 4 - The global economic outlook indicates a coexistence of recovery and downward risks, with regional growth becoming differentiated, where Asia emerges as a primary growth engine despite ongoing trade slowdowns and fragmentation pressures [13]. - CEOs are shifting their focus from mere efficiency and growth to resilience, trust, and organizational adaptability to navigate the ongoing global turbulence [14].