NOAH HOLDINGS(US:NOAH) 点拾投资·2025-12-30 01:05Core Insights - The year 2025 is characterized as a "year of rupture," highlighting the deepening cracks in the old order and the emergence of a new paradigm in macroeconomic narratives, emphasizing the search for certainty in an uncertain world [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, both risk and safe-haven assets experienced simultaneous growth, indicating a breakdown of the traditional risk-hedge dichotomy [5]. - The A-share market saw a W-shaped bottoming pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising approximately 15% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by around 30% due to confidence rebuilding and policy support [6][10]. - Active equity funds returned over 28%, outperforming the broader market, suggesting a resurgence of active management strategies [6][7]. Group 2: Asset Class Performance - The A-share market displayed a "barbell" structure, with low-valuation dividend stocks and high-growth tech stocks emerging as winners [7]. - In the U.S. stock market, the S&P 500 index rose by about 17% and the Nasdaq by over 22%, driven by AI advancements, despite initial concerns of a market bubble [10][19]. - Gold prices surged over 60%, marking the largest annual increase since 1979, transitioning from a traditional inflation hedge to a credit hedge amid geopolitical tensions [15][17]. Group 3: Geopolitical Impact - Geopolitical issues became a primary driver of asset prices, with events like Trump's tariff policies causing significant market volatility [23]. - The normalization of geopolitical conflicts necessitates a reevaluation of asset allocation strategies, moving away from traditional globalization frameworks [23][24]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The concept of "anti-fragile asset allocation" has emerged as a crucial strategy in response to increasing macroeconomic uncertainties, focusing on building resilient portfolios [26]. - The "safety net, basic plate, growth point" framework proposed by Noah Wealth emphasizes a structured approach to asset allocation, aiming to withstand market volatility [30].