2026大宗商品机会在哪？重点关注这5条交易主线

Core Viewpoint - 2025 is expected to be a year of significant differentiation in the commodity market, with precious metals standing out, and non-ferrous metals performing significantly better than energy and black metals [5][11]. Group 1: 2025 Commodity Market Overview - The focus of commodities in 2025 continues to shift downward, with precious metals performing exceptionally well, while non-ferrous metals outperform energy and black metals [11]. - The differentiation reflects the disparity in industrial structures and responses to macroeconomic environments, with favorable conditions supporting precious metals due to declining dollar credit and a shift in monetary policy [11]. - Non-ferrous metals like copper and tin are expected to see price increases due to a lack of supply elasticity and strong demand driven by green energy and AI developments [11][12]. Group 2: 2026 Commodity Investment Clues - The easing of the US-China trade war and a favorable macroeconomic environment are expected to create investment opportunities in commodities, with several trading themes identified for 2026 [6][12]. - Theme 1: A structural bull market continues, with technology remaining a key focus, and a slow bull market in the stock market is anticipated [12]. - Theme 2: Non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to perform well due to supply constraints and strong demand from green energy and AI narratives [16]. - Theme 3: Carbonate lithium is projected to have growth potential due to high demand for energy storage, despite high supply growth [20]. - Theme 4: Potential supply-demand reversals are expected in nickel, polysilicon, live pigs, and eggs, with opportunities for profit recovery if overcapacity is addressed [23][25]. - Theme 5: Policies aimed at reducing overcapacity may create opportunities in PX, PTA, alumina, and coking coal [29]. Group 3: Specific Commodity Insights - Copper, aluminum, and tin are highlighted as quality long positions due to their supply constraints and strong demand narratives [16]. - Carbonate lithium's price outlook depends on the sustainability of strong demand, with potential for price increases if demand continues to grow [20]. - Nickel's supply dynamics may shift from surplus to shortage if Indonesian quotas are reduced, indicating potential for price recovery [23]. - Agricultural products like live pigs and eggs may see profit recovery opportunities if overcapacity is addressed in 2026 [25].