【首席观察】2025年预测错了多少？2026年资本风口在哪里？

Core Viewpoint - The market is not afraid but transforms fear into pricing, which is crucial for investors to grasp the "capital wind" of 2026 [2][3] Group 1: Market Performance in 2025 - The year 2025 exhibited a significant disconnect between predictions and reality, with silver leading gains at 173.13%, followed by gold at 73.91% and copper at 32.92% [5] - Major indices like the S&P 500 and the Hang Seng Index saw increases of 17.26% and 28.61% respectively, while light crude oil dropped by 19.63% [5][6] - The S&P 500 index, despite conservative forecasts, achieved a year-to-date increase of over 17%, nearing historical highs [6] Group 2: Key Variables Influencing the Market - Five key variables explain the market dynamics of 2025: 1. The repricing of dollar credit and institutional risk premiums due to uncertainties in fiscal sustainability and central bank independence [10] 2. The rise of real assets' "non-sovereign premium," with gold reaching $4500 per ounce as a response to geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties [10] 3. The collision of demand and supply pricing in energy markets, reflecting concerns over inflation expectations [11] 4. Global liquidity mechanisms affecting financing costs and volatility, leading to a dual structure in market transactions [11] 5. The concentration of growth narratives around AI, with capital increasingly focused on profitability and productivity verification [11][12] Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - The asset pricing logic for 2026 shifts from "explaining the world" to "pricing the discount rate," emphasizing the importance of financial conditions and narrative realization [15] - The focus will be on "infrastructure 2.0," where the emphasis is on building sustainable computing power rather than merely acquiring GPUs [15][16] - Key factors determining the transition from thematic trading to trend markets include financial conditions, visibility of returns, supply-side engineering, and regulatory certainty [16] Group 4: Investment Strategies and Risks - The potential for gold to reflect "institutional premiums" remains, but the impact of the dollar and real interest rates may lead to sharper corrections [17] - The outlook for oil prices suggests prolonged low levels with potential spikes, while the yield curve may split between short-term central bank paths and long-term fiscal pressures [17] - The volatility of assets will be influenced by the overall market structure rather than directional trading, as investors adapt to frequent but manageable events [17]