研报 | 下调2026年全球笔电出货量预估年减至5.4%

Core Insights - The article highlights a downward revision of global laptop shipments for 2026, projecting a year-over-year decline of 5.4%, down to approximately 173 million units, reflecting brands' conservative strategies in response to rising storage costs and inventory pressures [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Outlook - TrendForce has adjusted the 2026 global laptop shipment forecast to a decrease of 5.4%, with a potential further decline to 10.1% if storage prices do not stabilize [4][5]. - Major brands like Apple and Lenovo are better positioned to maintain stable shipments due to their effective supply chain management and pricing strategies [4][5]. Group 2: Product and Pricing Strategies - Apple plans to launch a 12.9-inch model in spring 2026, targeting the entry to mid-range price segment, leveraging its supply chain efficiency to attract consumers despite market challenges [6]. - Lenovo, while facing MSRP increases, is expected to utilize its scale advantages and mature supply chain to manage cost pressures and potentially expand market share [6]. Group 3: Panel Market Impact - The laptop market's struggles due to rising storage prices are anticipated to negatively impact the shipment momentum of laptop panels, with an estimated decline of about 7.9% in 2026 [6]. - LCD panels are expected to face dual threats from reduced laptop demand and increasing OLED penetration, leading to a more significant decline in shipments [6].