2025年11月乳制品供需形势分析月报

Core Viewpoint - The report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs indicates a slight decline in fresh milk purchase prices, but anticipates a stabilization and potential recovery in prices due to seasonal demand increases during the upcoming holidays [2][4][11]. Group 1: Fresh Milk Market Analysis - In November, the purchase price of fresh milk decreased slightly, with an average price of 3.03 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 0.3% month-on-month decline and a 2.9% year-on-year decline [4]. - The decline in fresh milk prices is attributed to an oversupply situation, despite ongoing adjustments in dairy herd management [4][12]. - The domestic market is expected to see a stabilization and potential increase in fresh milk prices due to seasonal demand driven by the New Year and Spring Festival [2][11]. Group 2: Retail Price Trends - Retail prices for fresh milk and milk powder have shown slight increases, influenced by the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with fresh milk averaging 5.73 yuan per jin, a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a 1.1% year-on-year increase [6]. - The average retail price for milk powder reached 144.27 yuan per jin, reflecting a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a 6.5% year-on-year increase [6]. Group 3: Import and Export Dynamics - Cumulative imports of dairy products from January to October increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with a total of 2.1812 million tons, while the import value rose by 13.9% to 10.343 billion USD [8]. - Exports of dairy products saw a significant increase, with a 92.2% year-on-year rise in volume to 112,600 tons and a 55.4% increase in export value to 345 million USD [8]. - The import of various dairy products showed mixed trends, with fresh milk imports decreasing by 8.2% year-on-year, while yogurt and whey powder imports increased by 9.9% and 12.7%, respectively [8]. Group 4: Price Comparison - The price gap between domestic and international raw milk powder has narrowed due to a decline in international wholesale prices and an increase in the proportion of duty-free imports from New Zealand [10]. - As of October, the imported raw milk powder price was 39,427 yuan per ton, which is 10,107 yuan higher than the domestic price, with the gap decreasing by 2,590 yuan from the previous month [10].