甲醇：突然的大涨，发生了什么？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in methanol prices driven by U.S. sanctions on Iran and improving supply-demand expectations, indicating a transition from weak reality to strong expectations in the methanol market [5]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Methanol prices have surged due to U.S. sanctions on Iran and improved supply-demand dynamics, with many Iranian facilities currently offline and some non-Iranian facilities also halting operations [5]. - The methanol market is experiencing a transition phase where the worst conditions are likely over, and the downside potential appears limited, suggesting opportunities for long positions [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Current inventory levels are high, with port inventories increasing significantly after a period of depletion, and inland inventories also showing slight increases due to high supply and seasonal demand decline [10]. - Traditional demand is weakening seasonally, with reduced operating rates for downstream products like formaldehyde and MTBE, leading to lower order volumes from inland enterprises [10]. - The reduction in imports is expected to be more pronounced starting in January, with Iranian facilities largely offline and domestic imports anticipated to decrease significantly in February and March [13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The demand landscape for 2026 remains positive, with new MTO facilities expected to come online, including a 450,000-ton facility already in operation and another 1 million-ton facility projected to start production [14]. - The methanol market is currently in a phase of transitioning from weak realities to strong expectations, with the expectation of significant inventory reductions in early 2024 [17].